[SMM Analysis]Lithium hydroxide output fell 13% MoM in August a rebound is expected in September.

ExxonMobil's competitive edge lies in its use of synthetic graphite. This lab-engineered carbon material is produced from petroleum byproducts or other feedstocks rather than being mined. Compared with natural graphite, synthetic graphite offers higher purity and consistency. Its production is less labor-intensive, scalable through ExxonMobil’s refineries, and more environmentally friendly due to lower land use and emissions. This material outperforms mined alternatives in conductivity and stability, directly enhancing battery efficiency and reliability. Following its acquisition of Superior Graphite’s assets in September 2025, ExxonMobil aims to expand domestic production capacity in the U.S., reduce reliance on imports, and support local EV manufacturing.

This week, lithium hydroxide prices extended last week’s weakness, but the week-on-week decline was limited.

According to Xinhua News Agency, this innovation delivers a two- to threefold improvement in energy density and endurance compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. The report notes that this breakthrough comes at a time when demand for high-capacity, long-lasting batteries is surging across sectors such as electric vehicles, consumer electronics, robotics, and the low-altitude economy. Although energy density is crucial, enhancing it has remained technically challenging.

The chosen refinery site on Mission Island, previously home to a decommissioned power station, will have an annual output of 20,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide (LCE)—sufficient to power half a million EVs yearly.

The European Union Batteries and Waste Batteries Regulation (2023/1542) officially entered into force on August 17, 2023, establishing a legally binding framework for the full life cycle management of batteries for all member states

Under the terms of the deal, Rock Tech will supply battery-grade lithium hydroxide from its forthcoming refinery in Guben, Germany, to Ronbay's cathode manufacturing facility in Konin, Poland. This vertical integration creates a seamless supply chain that reduces reliance on imports and shortens delivery times for European battery manufacturers.

The dispute centers on two key demands from Atlantic Lithium’s Ghanaian subsidiary, Barari DV: slashing royalty rates from 10% to 5% and revising corporate tax terms. The company argues that plunging lithium prices have slashed its post-tax return rate from an initial projection of 94% to just 13.6%. However, NRGI’s independent analysis suggests the project could still yield a 28% return even at current prices.

[SMM Analysis]Summarizing the three articles in this series, the author believes that around 70% of U.S. tariffs on China may be a theoretical equilibrium level. If the tariffs are below around 70%, China's LFP energy storage cells still have a price advantage over those produced by the U.S. on its own production lines. If the tariffs are above around 70%, it would be more advantageous for the U.S. to produce LFP energy storage cells locally. However, assuming that the transshipment trade channel is not completely blocked, transshipment trade remains the most economical way of trade.

[SMM Analysis]This article aims to analyze the price impact of energy storage cells produced in China and exported directly, transshipped via Malaysia, and locally produced in the US from August 13 to January 1, 2026. Some of the data used are theoretical, which may make the results appear on the higher side. The author will try to explain the reasons for each data point in detail so that readers can replace the relevant data to obtain more targeted conclusions. The third article in this series will focus on the price impact caused by tariffs after January 1, 2026.

[SMM Analysis]This article is the first in the series, aiming to analyze the price impact of Chinese-produced energy storage cells exported directly, transshipped via Malaysia, and the hypothetical scenario of local production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) energy storage cells in the US, from May 14 to August 13. Some of the data used are theoretical, which may make the results appear on the higher side. The author will explain the reasons for each data point in detail to allow readers to replace the relevant data and obtain more targeted conclusions. Follow-up articles (II) and (III) will analyze the price impact due to different tariffs at subsequent time points.